Gross mortgage lending is expected to reach £310bn this year, a report published by the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association (IMLA) has indicated.

This figure will be slightly above 2021’s performance, after IMLA stated the mortgage market had remained resilient in 2022, despite geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

IMLA also said the headline figure has been driven by high levels of remortgaging, which account for more than a third of gross lending. The buy-to-let (BTL) market has also had a record year, with an estimated gross lending figure of £56bn.

According to the trade association’s report, the majority of mortgage business in 2022 has been conducted through intermediaries, with their share of distribution rising from 80% to 84%, reflecting the advantages of lenders using these channels – namely lower fixed costs and the flexibility to control volumes. IMLA said it expects this share of the market to grow to 90% by 2024.

Furthermore, the report has highlighted inflation as a “ket factor” for the mortgage market’s prospects over the next two years. If CPI inflation remains above the Bank of England’s target in 2024, IMLA said the Bank would remain “under pressure” to maintain or adjust the base rate in order to control inflation.

The report predicted that higher interest rates will result in gross mortgage lending falling to £265bn in 2023 and £250bn in 2024. These forecasts would also see BTL lending fall to £47bn in 2023, as a tougher economy weighs on the market.

IMLA executive director, Kate Davies, commented: “After two years of global economic turmoil caused by COVID-19, 2022 was widely expected to be a year of recovery and a return to stability.

“However, the new normal appears to be uncertainty, with lockdowns in China continuing to impact supply chains, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggering rapid rises in energy prices, and political upheaval in the UK directly affecting mortgage rates.”

She added: “Looking ahead, there will continue to be significant challenges facing the mortgage sector and wider economy. We expect persistent inflation and the Bank of England response to weigh on the market, which will have an impact on lending as buyers choose to hold off on moving home or investing in a BTL property.

“However, where buyers are looking to secure their next mortgage, we have no doubt that the intermediary market will continue to support consumers and that a growing number of people will be turning to brokers to help them navigate the mortgage journey in these uncertain times.”

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