Three in five Primis brokers expect BoE base rate to increase in H2

Nearly three in five (59%) Primis brokers expect the Bank of England (BoE) to raise the base rate during the second half of the year.

In a number of surveys conducted at recent Primis events, the mortgage network found that 14% of respondents said an increase was very likely this year, while 44% thought it likely.

Over a quarter (28%) consider an increase to be unlikely, and an additional 13% were unsure.

The survey results come ahead of the next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting tomorrow, which will determine whether the base rate remains at 3.75%, or is increased or decreased.

Primis stated that the prospect of higher borrowing costs comes at a time when the majority of households are struggling with the cost of living.

Over three in five (61%) of brokers said day-to-day living costs were having the biggest impact, ahead of global events (19%) and mortgage rates and borrowing costs (11%).

As a result, 58% of brokers said that customers were becoming more cautious or delaying decisions, while 20% said customers were increasingly prioritising shorter-term fixes.

Furthermore, 67% stated that the remortgage market was providing the fastest-growing areas of consumer demand at present, ahead of first-time buyers at 22%.

Demand for advice is also expected to increase in the second half of the year, with 63% predicting a rise, compared to 9% who anticipate a decline.

Head of sales at Primis, Michele MacGregor, said that borrowers are preparing for a rate increase.

She concluded: "That prospect, combined with a continued strain of higher household bills, is making many borrowers more cautious. But caution does not choke activity, and with an estimated 1.8 million fixed-rate mortgages due to mature this year, large numbers of borrowers will still need to take action in the second half of the year, which should sustain activity for brokers.

"It is therefore unsurprising that brokers expect demand for advice to increase in the coming six months. In a more precarious rate environment, the value of advice becomes greater, not smaller.

"Our priority is as ever to ensure brokers across the Primis network have the lender access, tools and support they need to help customers act with clarity rather than delay through uncertainty."



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