Consumer confidence rises for third month but inflation clouds outlook

UK consumer confidence rose one point to -13 in September, a third consecutive monthly increase to hit a two-year high, although households remained cautious amid renewed inflation pressures, according to GfK's latest index.

The firm's established Consumer Confidence Barometer showed four of its five measures improving during the month. Confidence in personal finances over the past year rose three points to -3, while expectations for the next 12 months increased one point to +5.

Perceptions of the wider economy also improved, with the measure covering the past year rising four points to -36. Expectations for the economy over the next year increased one point to -22, 10 points higher than a year earlier.

The September reading was the highest since August 2024, although the overall index remained firmly below zero.

The major purchase index was the only measure to decline, falling one point to -8, although it remained eight points above September 2025. The savings index, which is not included in the headline confidence score, rose five points to +27, suggesting some households may be looking to build a financial buffer under pressure from rising prices.

It comes as new chancellor John Healey is scheduled to deliver his first Budget at the end of October, and it is expected to be a difficult one, as he will need to balance rising government debt and spending with sluggish economic growth and rising consumer costs.

Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, said: “September continued the gradual recovery seen since April, with consumer confidence rising one point to -13. This marks the first time since summer 2024 that we have seen three consecutive monthly increases in the Overall Index Score.

"However, the return of higher inflation removes one of the strongest positives seen in previous months. So, while the headline score continues to improve, confidence is still firmly in negative territory. With inflation, energy and fuel prices rising, could we soon see consumer sentiment falter?”



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